关于好奇心

1970年，赞比亚修女 Mary Jucunda 给美国航空航天局马歇尔太空航行中心的科学副总监 Ernst Stuhlinger 博士写信，当时 Stuhlinger 正在研究一项火星探测项目。

修女提出了一个很多人难以回答的问题：

地球上还有这么多小孩子吃不上饭，你们怎么舍得为一个远在火星的项目花费数十亿美元？

Stuhlinger 很快给 Jucunda 修女回了信，在信中，Ernst 说了一个真实的故事：

400年前，德国某小镇里有一位伯爵。他将自己收入的一大部分捐给了镇子上的穷人。这十分令人钦佩，因为中世纪时穷人很多，而且那时经常爆发席卷全国的瘟疫。

一天，伯爵碰到了一个奇怪的人，他家中有一个工作台和一个小实验室，他白天卖力工作，每天晚上，他把小玻璃片研磨成镜片，然后把研磨好的镜片装到镜筒里，用此来观察细小的物件。

伯爵被这个小发明迷住了。他邀请这个怪人住到了他的城堡里，作为伯爵的门客，此后他可以专心投入所有的时间来研究这些光学器件。

然而，镇子上的人得知伯爵在这么一个怪人和他那些无用的玩意儿上花费金钱之后，都很生气。

“我们还在受瘟疫的苦，”他们抱怨道，“而他却为那个闲人和他没用的爱好乱花钱！”伯爵听到后不为所动。他表示，“我会继续资助这个人和他的工作，我确信终有一天会有回报。”

果不其然，他的工作赢来了丰厚的回报：显微镜。

显微镜的发明给医学带来了前所未有的发展，由此展开的研究及其成果，消除了世界上大部分地区肆虐的瘟疫和其他一些传染性疾病。

伯爵为支持这项研究发明所花费的金钱，其最终结果大大减轻了人类所遭受的苦难，这回报远远超过单纯将这些钱用来救济那些遭受瘟疫的人。

这就是好奇心的价值。

另外，我们还能够从“奇怪的人”身上学到什么呢？

追求终极真实是需要在自己所认定的价值体系内生活下去的勇气的。

About 400 years ago, there lived a count in a small town in Germany. He was one of the benign counts, and he gave a large part of his income to the poor in his town. This was much appreciated, because poverty was abundant during medieval times, and there were epidemics of the plague which ravaged the country frequently. One day, the count met a strange man. He had a workbench and little laboratory in his house, and he labored hard during the daytime so that he could afford a few hours every evening to work in his laboratory. He ground small lenses from pieces of glass; he mounted the lenses in tubes, and he used these gadgets to look at very small objects. The count was particularly fascinated by the tiny creatures that could be observed with the strong magnification, and which he had never seen before. He invited the man to move with his laboratory to the castle, to become a member of the count’s household, and to devote henceforth all his time to the development and perfection of his optical gadgets as a special employee of the count。

The townspeople, however, became angry when they realized that the count was wasting his money, as they thought, on a stunt without purpose. “We are suffering from this plague,” they said, “while he is paying that man for a useless hobby!” But the count remained firm. “I give you as much as I can afford,” he said, “but I will also support this man and his work, because I know that someday something will come out of it!”

Indeed, something very good came out of this work, and also out of similar work done by others at other places: the microscope. It is well known that the microscope has contributed more than any other invention to the progress of medicine, and that the elimination of the plague and many other contagious diseases from most parts of the world is largely a result of studies which the microscope made possible。

The count, by retaining some of his spending money for research and discovery, contributed far more to the relief of human suffering than he could have contributed by giving all he could possibly spare to his plague-ridden community。

我不知道在德国的历史上这位“奇怪的人”是否确有其人。不过，我知道两位著名的磨镜男，安东尼·范·列文虎克、巴鲁赫·斯宾诺莎。

An availability cascade is a self-reinforcing cycle that explains the development of certain kinds of collective beliefs. A novel idea or insight, usually one that seems to explain a complex process in a simple or straightforward manner, gains rapid currency in the popular discourse by its very simplicity and by its apparent insightfulness. Its rising popularity triggers a chain reaction within the social network: individuals adopt the new insight because other people within the network have adopted it, and on its face it seems plausible. The reason for this increased use and popularity of the new idea involves both the availability of the previously obscure term or idea, and the need of individuals using the term or idea to appear to be current with the stated beliefs and ideas of others, regardless of whether they in fact fully believe in the idea that they are expressing. Their need for social acceptance, and the apparent sophistication of the new insight, overwhelm their critical thinking.

The idea of the availability cascade was first developed by Timur Kuran and Cass Sunstein, building upon the concept of information cascades and on the availability bias as identified by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.

The concept has been highly influential in finance theory and regulatory research, particular with respect to assessing and regulating risk.